Banco de la República forecasts that inflation will close the year at 7.1% and 4.8%.

The Banco de Republica stated in its Monetary Policy Report for the month of April that inflation will stand at 7.1% by the end of this year. They also estimate that the CPI will be even lower by the end of 2023: according to their calculations, it will reach 4.8%.

Inflation expectations increased and remain above target because of the war between Russia and Ukraine, which has put pressure on international prices of agricultural goods, energy and oil.

The new inflation projection assumes international food prices would rise through mid-year and remain high and relatively stable in the remainder of 2022.

Perishable foods may not recover normal prices due to high agricultural input prices. The Issuer also highlights that prices of cleaning and hygiene products could be higher in the face of scenarios of the expiration of the sanitary emergency and the reversal of the Value Added Tax rebate.

“Thus, until June, annual inflation would continue at high levels similar to the current ones, and then decline, although more slowly than projected in the previous report. The adjustment process of the monetary policy interest rate would contribute to inflation and its expectations resuming their convergence to the target in the forecast horizon”

Source: La República.

https://www.larepublica.co/economia/la-inflacion-no-llegaria-al-rango-meta-antes-del-primer-trimestre-de-2024-banrep-3356188#:~:text=El%20Emisor%20prev%20prev%20C3%A9%20que%20el,que%20antes%20ten%20ten%20C3%ADan%20as%20objetivo.